tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948885059517209129.post7776031884407586260..comments2023-10-29T08:04:00.488-07:00Comments on Quintessence of Dust: Weekly sampler 14Stephen Mathesonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05057004085073574659noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948885059517209129.post-56619964110886136222008-04-14T11:20:00.000-07:002008-04-14T11:20:00.000-07:00The first time I heard the MH puzzle it fooled me ...The first time I heard the MH puzzle it fooled me as well. The best way I like to explain it is to increase the doors from 3 to 100, and then have the host open 98 door and show goats. Then it is obvious you want to switch because there was a 99% chance of being in that set of 99 doors, so to switch gives you overwhelming odds that are easier to see.<BR/><BR/>Actually, the first time I heard this puzzle it was with 100 doors, but the host only opened 1 door of the remaining 99, and I then had the choice to switch to any of the remaining 98 doors. You odds are still better, but your odds increase so insignificantly that it is much harder to notice. I asserted with confidence that the odds for any one door where still 1 in a hundred and I would not switch (and I was so proud of myself). I was wrong, if you switch, you improve your odds from 0.01 to (99/100)*(1/98) = 0.0101 (not much better odds)<BR/><BR/>bdelloid rotifers don't have sex? What would be the point to continue living!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948885059517209129.post-57479898542225983602008-04-12T08:27:00.000-07:002008-04-12T08:27:00.000-07:00I was thinking about the Monty Hall problem this w...I was thinking about the Monty Hall problem this week because of this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08tier.html?em&ex=1207972800&en=81bdecc33f60033e&ei=5087%0A My intuition on the problem was dead wrong. I was having a very difficult time figuring out why the two remaining choices weren't equivalent. The Wikipedia article did a nice job of pointing out the key wrinkle--as you did also. It points out to me that I overly trust my intuition.VanceH-https://www.blogger.com/profile/14482908993570281977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948885059517209129.post-73779030587994305112008-04-11T20:05:00.000-07:002008-04-11T20:05:00.000-07:00I remember this MH puzzle! I went to the site and...I remember this MH puzzle! I went to the site and played the game 20 times, switching from my initial choice each of the 20 times. Percentage of victory? 55%, which means that I randomly chose correctly at the outset just under 50% of the time. Not exactly what I would have expected.Kevin Corcoranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17422789329481787215noreply@blogger.com